Trump-Aligned Former NFL Reporter Tafoya Opens Up Big Lead in Minn. Primary

A Public Policy Polling survey conducted in late April showed Flanagan leading Craig 44 percent to 33 percent, continuing a trend seen in earlier polling throughout the year.

Previous January surveys similarly showed Flanagan maintaining an advantage ranging from 8 to 13 points.

The emerging matchup could create one of the most closely watched Senate races of the 2026 cycle, especially if Republicans continue to see favorable national momentum heading into the midterms.

Tafoya’s supporters argue her outsider profile, communication skills, and established public presence could help Republicans appeal to suburban and independent voters who have drifted away from the GOP in recent statewide elections.